Bankroll Management Calculator
Simulate a run of bets to see what a staking plan does to growth, drawdown and the risk of ruin.
Bankroll Management Calculator
Simulate flat and percentage staking over a run of bets to see growth, drawdown and the risk of going broke.
Of the bankroll at the time
Median finish
₦110,028.42
Bad run (5th pct)
₦59,164.53
Median drawdown
29.5 %
Went broke
0.0 %
The simulation assumes every bet is independent and priced at the same odds. Real betting is lumpier — correlated results and varying prices widen the spread — so treat the band as optimistic.
Why Bankroll Management Matters
Selection decides whether you have an edge; staking decides whether you survive long enough to collect it. A profitable bettor staking too large a share of the bankroll can still go broke, because losing runs are longer and more common than intuition suggests. At a 40 % strike rate, ten losses in a row happens roughly once every 165 bets.
The Two Plans
- Flat. The same amount every time, regardless of the bankroll. Easy to track, and the stake does not fall when you need it to — a long enough losing run reaches zero.
- Percentage. Stake = current bankroll × p %. Stakes shrink automatically in a drawdown and grow when the bankroll does, so the plan compounds and mathematically cannot reach zero — though it can get small enough to be unusable.
How the Simulation Works
The calculator runs 400 independent sequences of your chosen length using your win rate and average odds, then reports the median path, the middle 80 % of outcomes, the typical worst drawdown along the way, and how often the bankroll could no longer cover a bet.
Two simplifications worth knowing. Every bet is treated as independent and priced identically, which real betting is not — correlated results and varying prices both widen the spread. And the win rate is taken as given: in practice it is an estimate from a limited sample, and the error in it usually outweighs the difference between staking plans.
Common Mistakes
- Raising stakes to recover. Chasing turns a drawdown into a ruin event. The simulation shows why: the losing run does not know what you did last bet.
- Sizing by confidence. “Banker” bets get five times the normal stake and lose at the normal rate for their price.
- Counting the bankroll as spending money. A bankroll you dip into is not a bankroll, and the percentage plan stops working when the base keeps moving.
Frequently Asked Questions
What percentage of my bankroll should I stake?
One to three per cent per bet is the usual range for anyone without a measured edge, and even confident bettors rarely exceed five. The reason is drawdown rather than growth: at 5 % per bet a normal losing run of ten costs about 40 % of the bankroll, and recovering from that needs a 67 % gain.
Flat staking or a percentage of the bankroll?
Percentage staking is self-correcting — stakes shrink as the bankroll falls, so it cannot go to zero and compounds when things go well. Flat staking is simpler and easier to track. Run both through the simulation with the same win rate: the percentage curve is smoother in bad runs, the flat one is more aggressive in recovery.
Can a staking plan turn a losing record into a winning one?
No, and this is worth being blunt about. If your expected value per bet is negative, every staking plan loses — they differ only in how quickly. Martingale-style progressions are the extreme case: they win small amounts often and lose the bankroll occasionally, which is worse, not better.
How large should the bankroll be?
Large enough that a normal losing run is boring. If a 20 % drawdown would make you change your approach, the stakes are too big for the bankroll — and changing approach mid-run is what turns variance into permanent loss.
Related Tools
- Kelly Criterion Calculator — stake sizing derived from a measured edge rather than a fixed rule.
- ROI / Yield Calculator — measure the win rate and yield this simulation asks you to supply.
- Value Bet / EV Calculator — the edge per bet that decides whether any of this grows.