Dutching Calculator
Back several outcomes of the same event for an identical return, whichever of them comes in.
Dutching Calculator
Split a stake across several outcomes of the same event so the return is identical whichever one wins.
Selections
3
Book %
70.24 %
Payout
₦7,118.64
Profit
+₦2,118.64
| Selection | Odds | Stake | Share | Returns |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Runner 1 | 3.50 | ₦2,033.90 | 40.7 % | ₦7,118.64 |
| Runner 2 | 4.00 | ₦1,779.66 | 35.6 % | ₦7,118.64 |
| Runner 3 | 6.00 | ₦1,186.44 | 23.7 % | ₦7,118.64 |
Your selections total 70.24 % — under 100 %, so this returns a profit whichever of them wins.
What is Dutching?
Dutching means backing several outcomes of the same event and sizing each stake so the return is identical whichever one wins. Instead of picking one runner in a ten-horse race, you back the four you think can win and collect the same amount regardless of which of them does.
It converts a set of guesses into a single position with a known payout. What it does not do is create an edge — if none of your selections wins, the entire stake is gone.
The Formula
- Stake on selection i: Sᵢ = S × (1 / Oᵢ) ÷ Σ (1 / Oⱼ)
- Payout if any selection wins: S ÷ Σ (1 / Oⱼ)
- Profit: Payout − S — positive only when Σ (1 / Oⱼ) < 1
Shorter prices take a larger share of the stake, which is exactly what equalises the return.
Example: Three Selections
You stake ₦5,000 across three runners priced at 3.50, 4.00 and 6.00. Their implied probabilities are 28.57 %, 25.00 % and 16.67 %, totalling 70.24 %.
- Runner 1: ₦5,000 × 0.2857 ÷ 0.7024 = ₦2,033.90
- Runner 2: ₦5,000 × 0.2500 ÷ 0.7024 = ₦1,779.66
- Runner 3: ₦5,000 × 0.1667 ÷ 0.7024 = ₦1,186.44
- Return if any of the three wins: ₦7,118.64
- Profit: ₦2,118.64
The total sits under 100 % here only because three of the field's runners are covered and the rest are not. Back enough of the field and the total climbs past 100 %, at which point the position is guaranteed to lose money — the calculator flags that as soon as it happens.
Dutching vs Arbitrage
The arithmetic is identical; the risk is not. An arbitrage covers every outcome, so some selection must win and the profit is locked in. Dutching covers only the outcomes you chose — the uncovered ones are your risk, and they are why the return is bigger.
Put plainly: arbitrage is a trade, dutching is a bet with the variance smoothed out.
Frequently Asked Questions
How is dutching different from arbitrage?
Arbitrage covers every outcome of a market, normally across different bookmakers, and only works when the total implied probability is under 100 % — the profit is guaranteed. Dutching covers a chosen subset of outcomes, usually at one bookmaker, and the total is normally above 100 %. If an outcome you did not back wins, you lose the whole stake. Dutching is risk management, not free money.
When is dutching worth it?
When you can rule outcomes out. In a ten-runner race where you are confident four cannot win, dutching the other six turns a scattershot guess into one position with a known return. It pays when your judgement about which outcomes to exclude is better than the prices imply — the maths itself adds nothing.
How are the stakes split?
In proportion to implied probability: stake = total × (1 / odds) ÷ Σ(1 / odds). Shorter prices take a bigger share, which is what makes the return identical whichever selection wins.
How many selections can I dutch?
As many as you like, but each one added raises the combined book percentage and cuts the return. Past a certain point you are paying to cover outcomes you do not believe in — the calculator shows the effect immediately as the payout falls.
What if my selections total under 100 %?
Then you have found an arbitrage rather than a dutch, and the bet profits whichever of your selections wins. Within one bookmaker this is rare — margins normally push the total above 100 %. Our arbitrage calculator is built for that case.
Related Tools
- Arbitrage Calculator — the same split when every outcome is covered.
- Implied Probability Calculator — see what each price is really claiming before you choose selections.
- Bookmaker Margin Calculator — the margin you pay on every selection you cover.