Matched Betting Calculator
Turn a free bet into cash by covering it on an exchange — and see exactly how much comes out.
Matched Betting Calculator
Work out the lay stake, qualifying loss and locked-in profit from a free bet.
Stake not returned — the usual kind
Lay stake
₦776.70
Liability
₦3,262.14
If back wins
+₦737.86
If lay wins
+₦737.86
What is Matched Betting?
Matched betting extracts the cash value of a bookmaker's free bet by covering it on an exchange. You back a selection with the free bet and lay the same selection elsewhere, so the two positions cancel — whatever happens, you walk away with roughly the same amount. The profit comes from the bonus, not from predicting anything.
The Two Steps
Almost every offer works the same way: place a qualifying bet with your own money to unlock the free bet, then use the free bet.
- Qualifying bet. Lay stake = (O_back × S_back) ÷ (O_lay − c). Both outcomes land on the same small loss — the qualifying loss.
- SNR free bet. Lay stake = ((O_back − 1) × S_back) ÷ (O_lay − c). The stake is not returned, so only the profit needs covering.
That single difference — O_back versus O_back − 1 — is what separates the two modes. Using the qualifying formula on a free bet over-lays the position and throws away most of the value.
Worked Example
A ₦1,000 SNR free bet. You back at 5.00 and lay at 5.20 on an exchange charging 5 %.
- Lay stake: (5.00 − 1) × ₦1,000 ÷ (5.20 − 0.05) = ₦776.70
- Liability: ₦776.70 × 4.20 = ₦3,262.14
- If the back wins: ₦4,000 − ₦3,262.14 = ₦737.86
- If the lay wins: ₦776.70 × 0.95 = ₦737.86
Identical either way, and about 74 % of the free bet turned into cash. Longer odds extract a higher percentage but demand far more liability on the exchange, which is the practical constraint.
SNR vs SR
An SR free bet returns the stake as well, so the full O_back needs covering — and the retention climbs towards 100 % of face value. Check which kind you have before laying: the terms usually say “stake not returned” in the small print, and assuming the wrong one is the most common way to leave money on the table.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is an SNR free bet?
Stake Not Returned: if the bet wins you keep the profit but not the stake. A ₦1,000 SNR free bet at 5.00 returns ₦4,000, not ₦5,000. This is the standard kind, and it is why the lay stake only has to cover the profit part rather than the full return.
How is an SR free bet different?
Stake Returned free bets pay the stake back as well, so they behave like an ordinary bet placed with someone else’s money. They are worth close to face value rather than 70–80 % of it, and are much rarer — usually a refund or a goodwill credit rather than a signup offer.
How much can you make from matched betting?
Roughly 70–80 % of each free bet’s face value, minus the qualifying loss on the bet that unlocked it. The ceiling is the number of offers available, not skill: signup offers can be claimed once each, and reload offers are small and irregular. Treat it as a way to extract value from bonuses, not as an income.
Is matched betting risk free?
The arithmetic is, the execution is not. The usual failures are placing one side and not the other, a price moving in between, misreading whether a free bet is SNR or SR, and accounts being limited once a bookmaker notices. Exchange liquidity can also disappear on small markets, leaving a lay unmatched.
Related Tools
- Back / Lay Calculator — the underlying stake maths, without the free-bet cases.
- Wagering Calculator — for offers that come with a rollover instead of a free bet.
- Bookmaker bonuses — the offers these calculations are for.